MBA Sizes Up 2003 and Looks into 2004 and Beyond

WASHINGTON, DC-The Mortgage Bankers Association has taken a look into its financial crystal ball and released its annual State of the Real Estate Finance Industry report. In addition to outlining the organization’s goals for the year, the report also concludes that economic growth and mortgage financing in 2004–as well as the two years following–is expected to be fairly robust as a result of an increasingly stronger job market and only slightly increasing interest rates due to low inflation.

“2003 ended very strong,” MBA president and CEO Jonathan L. Kempner said during yesterday’s press briefing. “Fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product growth will be in excess of 5% in real terms, and mortgage origination value hit an all-time high in 2003. It will decline in 2004, but it will still be the fourth or fifth largest year on record.” Calculated GDP growth for 2004 is expected to be 4.7%, and 4.1% in 2005 and 2006. Mortgage originations will see a decrease but will still reach a respectable $2 trillion in 2004, with only small declines in 2005 and 2006. “We see housing as being strong over the next three years in a strong economy,” Kempner added.