On the topic of outsourcing, Kellner noted that, while it has been a way of life for decades, the fact that now white-collar jobs are being outsourced has created a "depth of resentment." The economic chair at Long Island's Hofstra University also addressed increased capital spending, noting that companies are spending on equipment, not on space. Real estate space that he sees as in demand include hospitals, doctor's offices, assisted living, gated communities, educational facilities, technology centers, bank branches and back offices. Another hot category is industrial-to-residential conversions.
"We're seeing pockets of positive signs," LePatner founder Barry LePatner said he sees a tremendous opportunity in the 532 miles of coastline product in the New York City environs. His projects to watch include the $400-million Silvercup Studios development and the Jersey City rejuvenation.
Richard Anderson, president of the New York Building Congress, noted that the construction outlook is good for infrastructure projects, particularly those dealing with transportation matters. He expects the office construction numbers to fall in 2004 and 2005, but to rebound in 2006. On the residential front, 2003 was a banner year with "strong demand," he noted, saying that 20,800 units, representing a 12.4% rise, came online--a level not seen since the 1960s. "Construction is a job engine for the city," he said, predicting that the construction arena will hold 124,500 reported jobs in 2006.
Ken Krasnow, Cushman & Wakefield's senior managing director, New York Metro Region, commented that so far 2004 has proven to be a strong with five million sf of leasing activity to date. "There's improved confidence and a perception that the market has reached bottom."
Lease renewals are the hottest thing going--with six of the top 10 lease transactions being renewals. "It's a sign of commitment and that they feel the market has bottomed out," Krasnow added. While he sees a "relatively strong" 2004, it will all be tied to job growth, he predicted.
And Dr. Mark Smith, global director for Ernst & Young's Real Estate Advisory Services, said the New York marketplace is very attractive for large companies. "Every multinational company wants to be in New York, the question becomes: can they support the cost?" He added that he is seeing a change in the decision making process. "Over the last few years, they haven't been making decisions, just contemplating, but no action. Now there are actual conversations about taking space." He expects there to be a lot of activity over the next six to 12 months.
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