NEW YORK CITY-Target and Wal-Mart will sell 65% of all general merchandise bought in the United States by the end of next year, said Christine Augustine, a Bear Stearns retail analyst on Friday at an Urban Land Institute Panel in Manhattan. That would be a 15% increase from the amount the two companies are now selling, she said.

Augustine and Dana Telsey, also a Bear Stearns retail analyst, brought up this and other points about retail’s future in a presentation called “What’s Hot and Not in Retail?” These discount chains and others are growing and are popular with all income segments, Augustine says. “The US customer really wants a bargain,” she said. “Look at Costco, and you’ll see a Mercedes in the parking lot.”

But Augustine was not as optimistic about the future of another discounter – Kmart. “It’s unclear to me whether or not Kmart intends to be in business five years from now,” she said. Struggling chains the two speakers highlighted are Hot Topic, Saks Inc., Sears, Roebuck & Co., Tweeter Home Entertainment and others.

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