Locally based ICSC's survey was done by phone and surveyed 1,018 adults. Macerich, however, interviewed 6,200 shoppers in its centers. "It may enhance their answers because they're shopping," said Garry Butcher, Macerich's VP of marketing and consumer research. "We'll see who was closest in January."

Michael Niemira, ICSC's director of research, said the results could have come out differently because of how questions were worded. He also acknowledged that since the people surveyed in the Macerich report were shopping, it could have influenced their responses. "The numbers may look different, but with the variance, it's by no means clear," he said.

Besides concentrating on how much consumers will spend, the ICSC survey focused on where they will shop. Department stores will attract 46% of holiday shoppers, followed by discounters, at 17%, it found. Online stores will get 9% of the total and catalogs and large specialty stores will each attract 4% of consumers. The ICSC survey also said that 60% of the respondents have so far completed less than 50% of their shopping, and 30% said they had started buying gifts before Oct. 31. ICSC found that 17% of those polled said they would spend more on gifts this year than they did last year.