At its 2004 US Lodging Industry Briefing held at the Pierre Hotel this morning, Hanson stated that for 2005 PwC predicts occupancy levels will reach 62.9% and that figure will climb to 63.9% in 2006. "We see very strong occupancy performance," he added.

And if history repeats itself, he may be right. In 2002, PwC forecast occupancy levels would reach 59.6% and the actual figure was 59.2%; in 2003, PwC forecast occupancy levels would reach 59.6% and the actual figure was 59.1%. In addition, on Dec. 11, 2003 the firm forecast 2004 levels would reach 61.2% and as of today the actual number is 61.1%, Hanson explained.

He attributed the near-perfect forecast to the firm's research department, forecast model and "some luck." The forecasts do take some key risks and assumptions into consideration, he explained, like the continuing decline of crude oil prices, the continuing rapid rise of productivity growth, the continuing weakening of the dollar and the continuing increase of rates by the Federal Reserve.