"With just a few days left before Christmas, consumers continued to pick up their holiday shopping and gave retailers another week of positive sales," said Michael Niemira, ICSC's chief economist and director of research. "As of Dec. 19, only 31% of consumers had totally completed their gift shopping, which means that some 70% still have a little shopping left before Christmas. Consumers say that they've been shopping even later this holiday season than last year, which provides some evidence that this season will have a late-last minute surge. For the holiday season, ICSC continues to expect that sales will grow by 2.5% to 3.0%, on a year-over-year basis," added Niemira.
Although it's unclear whether that strengthening in the sales momentum will be sustained through the rest of the season, the later shopping by consumers this year keeps alive the hope that the season will finish on a strong note. According to the survey, some 33% of consumers say they've been shopping later this holiday season than last year, and a hefty 53% of consumers aged 18-24 years old and 40% of those aged 25-34 years old also report later shopping.
Other findings from the weekly consumer survey include the fact that 22% of consumers have been using gift cards more than during the 2003 season; 19% of consumers have used the Internet to shop more than last year; and 12% have ordered more from mail-order catalogues than last year. Additionally, 12% of consumers have been buying "services" as gifts rather than goods.
Separately, the NRF's latest holiday season survey notes that consumers completed a significant portion of their holiday shopping over the last week. The fourth installment of the NRF 2004 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey found that the average consumer had completed 81.9% of his or her holiday shopping as of Sunday, Dec. 19. Also, consumers have spent an average of $511.77 on the holidays this year.
"Retailers know that the holiday season is far from over," said Tracy Mullin, president and CEO of the NRF. "With Christmas falling at the end of the week and many offices closed on Christmas Eve, consumers have extra incentive to procrastinate this year."
Based on the survey, NRF estimates that up to 20% of holiday sales will occur the week before Christmas, and the week after Christmas typically represents 10% of holiday sales, with consumers filling the stores to redeem gift cards and hunt for sale items. As of Dec. 19, 12 million consumers still had not started their holiday shopping, leaving many purchases and gift-buying to the last minute. However, 73 million consumers were completely finished with their shopping, and another 75 million have completed more than three-fourths of their shopping.
"Though a large percentage of shopping has been completed, many sales have not been recorded due to heavy purchasing of gift cards, which are not recorded until merchandise is redeemed," said Phil Rist, VP of BIGresearch, which conducted the survey on behalf of the NRF. "Most consumers will have their shopping completed by Christmas Day, but will head out after Christmas to take advantage of discounted merchandise and spend gift cards." The NRF continues to project that holiday sales (in the months of November and December) will increase 4.5% this year, to $219.9 billion.
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