"The first half is going to be challenging," Levitan said of the year. Retailers could suffer from higher energy costs, less tax stimulus and higher interest rates. In addition, an ending fashion cycle and strong same-store sales comparisons could hurt the growth of fashion retailers.
Last year fashion retailers covered by Cowen posted an 18.6% jump in earnings per share, while home furnishings chains' EPS dropped by 15%. A decrease in mortgage refinancing could have caused the fall in the home furnishings sector, Levitan said.
She also stressed that she expects to see a continuation in weak-to-flat mall traffic in the coming year and said that retailers should assume that "mall traffic might not ever pick up." These trends have especially hurt mid-tier retailers such as Charlotte Russe, Dillards and the May Department Stores Co., Levitan said.
There is still room for chains to launch new concepts in high-end apparel and home furnishings, Levitan said. "If you don't live in a major market, you can't find contemporary apparel." But she also warned that starting a new chain with a significant presence is not easy. "Striking retail gold is hard." The Cowen conference ends this afteroon.
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