Erika Morphy is the co-editor of Real Estate Media's Debt & Equity Journal, available at Debt & Equity Journal .

Few in the retail industry were truly surprised last month when Federal Department Stores Inc., which owns Macy's and Bloomingdales, announced it would acquire May Department Stores Co., owner of Hecht's and Lord & Taylor stores, in a $10.4 billion deal. Department stores have been in consolidation mode for years; rumors of this particular deal had been whispered about and reported on for weeks.

However, given the transaction's size—with 501 stores in May's portfolio and 459 in Federated's, the two are the largest department store chains in the country—the implications for the retail real estate industry in general and, in particular, for REITs holding properties with both companies as tenants, are still unclear.

"Right now it is too soon to tell what is happening," says Gregory Maloney, president and CEO of Jones Lang LaSalle's Americas retail practice. "You can bet that there are still a lot of unresolved issues, a lot of discussions still happening behind the scenes."

At issue: the 93 locations where May and Federated stores compete head to head in the same shopping center. No one knows for certain, for example, whether these stores will continue to operate under their respective names or if they will consolidate at a point in the future, leaving valuable anchor spots open. Given the inefficiencies of operating similar department stores in the same mall—if nothing else, they are competing for the same foot traffic—most observers believe at least some stores will be consolidated.

"It will be interesting to watch their decision-making because there is so much overlap and duplication between the two companies," says Stephen Stephanou, executive vice president of Madison HGCD, a retail real estate brokerage firm in New York City. Prior to joining Madison HGCD, Stephanou was counsel and group vice president of real estate for Federated.

"Both stores have been targeting the same consumers for years," says Stephanou. "And there has already been so much consolidation; both May and Federated have been acquiring regional players for the last 20 years."

Some sources say the industry's past massive consolidation means the decisions as to which stores to keep and which to close will be that much harder. "In Southern California, the stores are a hodgepodge in size and location, since there have been several previous rounds of department store mergers," says Jack Kyser, an executive with the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. "In downtown Los Angeles, there is a large Macy's and a smaller Rob-May. Obviously, one would be closed as a result of the merger."

Meanwhile, retail REITs, which own or control some 60% to 70% of shopping centers in the country, are making similar calculations. Affected REITs are no doubt in talks with Federated and May to find out specific details, says Mahoney. "I would guess they are making plans to figure out ways of controlling another building if a particular location is going to consolidate the stores," he says.

But one organization taking a sanguine view of events is the Mills Corp., a self-managed REIT based in Arlington, VA that owns, develops, leases, manages and markets 38 retail and entertainment destinations totaling approximately 47 million sf. According to Mills investor relations director Noam Saxonhouse, only four properties in its portfolio have overlap between Federated and May. And even in those cases, he thinks the company is just fine: "The malls that have the overlap are generally pretty strong malls and given the strength of the properties I believe it is unlikely they would close those boxes," he says.

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Erika Morphy

Erika Morphy has been writing about commercial real estate at GlobeSt.com for more than ten years, covering the capital markets, the Mid-Atlantic region and national topics. She's a nerd so favorite examples of the former include accounting standards, Basel III and what Congress is brewing.