Last Friday, the US Department of Defense released its list of military installations that are being recommended for closure or restructuring. Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld presented the list to the presidential-appointed independent Defense Base Realignment and Closure Commission. The department's BRAC recommendations, if adopted, would close 33 major bases and realign 29 more, and, Rumsfeld noted during the news conference at the Pentagon, save the military an estimated net sum of $48 billion over the next two decades. When combined with the anticipated savings from overseas basing realignments around the world, the projected net savings increases to $64.2 billion.

Industry insiders comment that real estate developers are already salivating over the potential gain in developable acreage, but any long-term gains will come at a short-term cost. Southwest bureau chief Connie Gore reports, the folks of Bowie County, faced with a $200-million economic hit, are prepared to go to battle to keep Red River Army Depot and an ancillary base open, but they don't hold out much hope of success. "BRAC experts are saying there's not much that can be changed about last week's Department of Defense recommendations," Gore reports. "Still, it won't keep locals from fighting."

Likewise, more than 2,000 jobs will be gone when the smoke clears in Illinois. Reporter Mark Ruda reveals that since Great Lakes Naval Training Center was the US Navy's only boot camp, it was not expected to be on the hit list. However, Great Lakes still may take a hit, as the proposed BRAC program calls for a net loss of 2,022 local jobs, out of a population of 23,439. Although that population includes some 13,000 students and recruits preparing to ship out to various ports, the base has a military payroll of $275 million while the civilian work force there adds another $134 million to the area economy.

"The decrease in the military population of Great Lakes may have an impact on the amount of federal tax dollars received by the City of North Chicago, such as school impact aid, motor fuel tax and census revenue," Mayor Leon Rockingham Jr. says.

But the DoD gameplan is realignment, not simply closure, and the prospects in Texas and Illinois contrast widely with the upshot in Denver, in a story filed by John Rebchook. "The addition of 4,377 new jobs at Fort Carson under the realignment, in addition to 3,700 troops from the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, will have an economic impact of $400 million-plus on Colorado Springs," Rebchook writes.

What's more, Rocky Scott, the outgoing president of the city's Economic Development Corp., tells GlobeSt.com that he believes that number is conservative. "That's just an estimate based on salaries from direct and indirect jobs," he states. "It doesn't include construction."

In Minnesota, the cuts are bad, but clearly not as bad as they could be, reports Jim McCartney. "Although some 254 military and civilian jobs would be transferred about 185 miles southeast to Fort McCoy in neighboring Wisconsin, and nine military jobs would be cut as part of a closed naval reserve center in Duluth, officials are relieved that the cuts were not deeper," McCartney writes, and neither cutback is expected to have a significant impact on either area. That said, the news disturbed Mark Winson, the chief administrative officer for the City of Duluth, when he heard about the closing of the naval base. "We consider the Naval Reserve Center an important element of our city," he says. Military officials were unsure what would happen to the new $3.5-million, 11,000-sf center, which was recently built near the Air Guard's 148th Fighter Wing headquarters building. The center was moved to the air base so it would be more secure.

While not much is expected to change in the list, despite local lobbyists protests, the real news will come in months and even years to come, as the locales feel both the upside and downside impact. Longer term, the news will continue to roll out as local developers make their pitches in the downtrodden locales.