Report: State Employment to Grow by 15% over 10 Years

SALEM, OR-The state will add close to 240,000 jobs between 2004 and 2014, according to a new forecast by the Oregon Employment Department. The number translates to 15% growth, which is very similar to the previous decade when the state added a little more than 230,000 jobs for a growth rate of 17%.The report by OED senior analyst Eric Moore says three sectors are expected to account for 60% of the new jobs. The three sectors are professional and business services, educational and health services, and trade, transportation and utilities. The professional and business services sector is projected to add close to 50,000 jobs for a 28% growth rate. Job growth is expected to be especially strong in employment services and business support services, the latter of which includes many call centers. Within professional services, strong growth is anticipated in architectural and engineering services and computer system design services.The educational and health services sector also is forecast to add close to 50,000 jobs. The 25% growth is expected to be concentrated in the health services industries. Growth in health care industries continues recent job growth trends and is largely linked to the state’s growing and aging population, according to the report.The trade, transportation, and utilities sector is projected to add 46,000 jobs for a 14% growth rate. Retail trade, which makes up the bulk of this sector, is likely to grow largely in line with population.Manufacturing is expected to add 6,000 jobs over the forecast period, which would keep employment at well below peak manufacturing employment levels, while manufacturing is projected to grow as it relates to computer and electronic equipment, transportation equipment, fabricated metals and machinery. Job losses are expected to continue in many resource-based industries such as food, wood, and paper products.As for where the growth will occur geographically, regional forecasts suggest the most rapid job growth rates will be in the central and southern regions of the state while Eastern Oregon and the south coast are expected to see the slowest job growth. The majority of jobs will be added to the state’s primary population centers, which are the Portland metro area and Willamette Valley.Meanwhile, EOD announced this week that the state’s seasonally adjusted payroll employment declined by 3,300 jobs in May and the unemployment rate stood at 6.5%, unchanged from April, when seasonally adjusted payroll was up by 300 employees.The seasonally adjusted 3,300-person decline in payroll is due to only 8,800 new jobs being created at a time of year when 12,100 new jobs is the norm. The seasonally adjusted decline is the first since January 2004 when the decline totaled 7,200 employees thanks in large part to a severe ice storm that curtailed economic activity throughout much of the state.Two of the three sectors that are forecast to grow by the largest percentage over the next 10 years saw seasonally adjusted declines in May. Trade, transportation and utilities and professional and business services each declined by 2,200 jobs. Educational and health services, meanwhile, gained 1,100 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis.