Average prices for high-end office investments in San Francisco rose from $180 per sf in 1995 to an average of around $325 per sf this year, according to the study. Of the 35 major office deals closed in San Francisco during the period, six exceeded $400 per sf.

The study also found that investment-grade real estate prices paid through the end of 2004 were not the highest prices paid over the decade, as many might have expected. The Utah State Retirement System-Cottonwood Partner's acquisition of 500 Howard Street, a 10-story, 230,000-sf class A Tower completed in 2003, was the high water mark at about $512 a sf, according to the study. The largest transaction of the last decade was Boston Properties' 1998 acquisition of the 4 million-sf Embarcadero Center for roughly $1.23 billion, or about $307 per sf.

Private investors, including development and investment firms and high-net worth families, were the most active buyers over the 10 years. In San Francisco, however, the office market actually saw a decrease in private owners as a group, while REITs and institutional investors increased their market share significantly, according to the report.

The Newmark study concludes that in order to support further price appreciation or even new development, San Francisco will need to average Class A rents over $40 per sf with vacancy rates under 10%. Newmark managing principal Monica Finnegan tells GlobeSt.com that as of the end of June, direct class A rents in the city averaged around $31 and direct class A vacancy was 13.7%. Preliminary August numbers show that class A office rents are up to $33.63 and class A vacancy is down to 13.1%, she says.

"The distance from 13% to 10% is not too great of one, especially when we see some out-of-market tenantslike Yahoo and Google seriously considering the San Francisco marketplace," Finnegan tells GlobeSt.com. "With supply diminishing -- and no real new construction readily on the horizon -- it doesn't take that much time for landlord's to begin to increase rents, especially on view or other desirable spaces."

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