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DENVER-Investors are on pace to buy a record $2.9 billion this year, according to top investment brokers at Cushman & Wakefield, Patrick T. Devereaux and Gene Pride. Both are directors in the Denver C&W office.
If their prediction is on right, investors will snap up almost $1 billion more in offices, retail and industrial properties this year than they did in 2004, according to the brokers. And the most amazing part of that is that 2004 was the second best year on record with $1.95 billion in sales. This year's tally is projected to be 48.7% better than the sales volume in 2004 and 30.9% higher in the previous record, set in 1998 when $2.22 billion in sales occurred. And that year was skewed by real estate trusts on a spending spree, buying up huge portfolios of offices, retail and industrial properties.
The total number of sales this year will only hit 149, barely more than 145 sales in 2004. However, the mix of product types sold this year will be vastly different. Devereaux and Pride are projecting 73 office sales of at least $1 million in size this year, compared with 53 last year; 27 industrial sales this year, compared with 36 in 2004; and 49 retail sales, compared with 56 last year.
"Large, trophy sales dominate the market," says Devereaux. Indeed, many owners are putting their buildings on the market to take advantage of the high prices and low cap rates, he says. In fact, it's not unusual to find buildings being placed on the market soon after they were purchased, as owners look to cash in on the current cycle, he notes.
On the other hand, lenders are beginning to scrutinize assets more he says. That is making class A properties even more attractive, while class B buildings are tougher to finance and class C buildings extremely difficult to get loans on.
This is also a rare time that could prove to be a win for buyers, too, he notes. That's because office investors are forecasting aggressive spikes in rents, as little supply is being added to the market, because rents are not high enough to justify construction.
Pride notes that retail is still the preferred investment property type. One thing, he says, is that everyone can relate to retail because everyone shops at grocery stores and department stores, making it particularly attractive to relatively novice investors. Many of them are investing in increasingly popular tenant-in-common vehicles, he notes.
Another advantage to retail is that tenant improvements are typically a fraction of what is required for office tenants, and retail tenants typically pay all the costs of utilities, so rising energy prices aren't a huge factor for the landlord.
And prices for retail are escalating, he notes. Just a year or so ago, he says, he had a hard time telling investors that a retail property was being listed at $250 per sf. "Now, $300- to $400-per-sf sales are not uncommon for retail strip centers," he says.
Devereaux says another thing that is making Denver especially popular among national investors is that the local job growth and unemployment trends are outpacing the national economy. "It's not by much," he notes, but it is still a selling point. Devereaux says that private capital is now accounting for 50% of all the transactions.
Pride says that it will be hard for 2006--or any year in the near future--to top the sales posted this year. Even though he expects sales to remain strong, sales volume will be limited because much of the product will already have traded hands with groups that plan to own the real estate for a reasonable holding period.
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