Economy Could Be 'Tricky' in 2007

NEW YORK CITY-”Broadly speaking, I’m optimistic,” said Mark Zandi, one of the panelists at the ULI New York Economic Forecast. “2007 will be trickier.” Thomas M. Justin, partner, the Weitzman Group, served as moderator to a panel that included Zandi, chief economist, Moody’s/Economy.com, and Tim Hopper, PhD, senior economist, the Reis Reports.

“The national economy is performing very well. There is broad-based solid growth.” Sources of growth include consumer spending and profitable businesses. “Businesses are in fantastic shape. Profitability has never been better. Exceptions include the auto and airline industries in addition to non-durable good manufacturing. Businesses are doing so well that “expansion is not a question of can they, but will they.”

Going forward, he predicts the economy will be more vulnerable. “New York City will throttle back a notch, but not as much as the national economy.” A key factor for this concern is rising energy prices. Zandi said it’s possible that oil prices could rise to $70 or $80 per barrel. Another concern is the availability of labor.