But both the drug and dollar store sectors, with their reliance on general merchandise, could face serious challenges, leading the investment bank to rate both sectors neutral.
Prescription growth has been helping the drug store chains, according to Lehman.
"We believe the script growth continues to be driven by additional scripts filled by Medicare Part D beneficiaries," said Meredith Adler, the reports' author. "So far the flu season is comparable to the incidences seen last year, so we don't expect it to have a meaningful impact to the comps for the national chains. Regionally, though, the level of flu incidence on the West Coast is down from last year, which should be a negative impact to Longs."
The investment bank predicted Rite Aid would post total comps of 3.2%, and Longs comps of 2.0%. Longs, unlike Walgreen, Rite-Aid and CVS, is a regional chain, operating more than 500 stores in the western United States.
All of the drug chains face challenges on the regulatory, reimbursement and new drug introduction front. But Rite-Aid also faces the additional challenge of integrating Eckerd Stores, if shareholders approve the deal later this month. Rite Aid's new stores and relocations might not live up to expectations, and rising interest rates could affect its cost structure. Longs, with its larger format and greater reliance on general merchandise, faces pressure from discount stores.
Dollar General expected to post a 4.5% comp gain, with Dollar Tree to see a 3.0% gain, Fred's a 1.8% rise, and Family Dollar a 1.0% rise.
Ironically, though, dollar stores face some of the same competitive pressures as drug retailers, including competitive pressures from discounters, as the traditional mass merchant chains negotiate better deals with suppliers. Fred's, which also sells prescription drugs, also could be hurt by declining reimbursement for Medicaid recipients.
But they face different pressures, as well, including the possibility of a less favorable exchange rate with China (where many good are manufactured), rising real estate costs and potential market saturation.
"Over the past few years, the retail environment has become increasingly competitive, with other retailers offering 'hot' promotions to drive traffic during the holiday period," said Adler in the report on dollar stores. "Furthermore, we continue to believe that the low-end consumer is financially stretched."
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