"This year, slow economic growth will be reflected in moderate consumer spending and retail sales gains," says NRF's chief economist, Rosalind Wells, in a statement. "The quarterly industry sales pattern will be the opposite of last year with modest gains early in the year and better increases in the second half."

Gains in the first quarter are expected to come in at 3.8%, 4.6% in the second quarter, 5.2% in the third and 5.7% in the fourth. The organization predicts that the luxury sector will continue to outperform other chains, while online sales will continue to grow.

Sectors of retail that are expected to slow down are building material and garden equipment chains and furniture stores. A softer housing market will impact those retailers, the report says.