Global Insight's Nariman Behravesh

PLACE YOUR BETS ON A NEAR-TERM RECESSION

Pessimistic respondents to last week’s Feedback Poll squeezed ahead of their more hopeful counterparts, with those believing there’s a better-than-50% chance of a near-term recession logging in at 53%. Commentator Nariman Behravesh, chief economist of Lexington, MA-based Global Insights, does not view himself as inordinately optimistic. (In fact, he points out, his firm “led the consensus” in predicting the housing downturn.) But he did express mild surprise at the reaction to the question, and a realistic optimism does poke through as he weighs in on how deep and wide the current post-credit crisis correction will be. Here’s why:

“People may be overreacting a bit to the financial turmoil. It is scary, but the reality is that it’s affecting only certain parts of the economy. It doesn’t seem to be having a broader impact. Yet.