(Read more on the industrial market.)
DALLAS-Preliminary market reports show third-quarter absorption in the industrial sector has managed to keep pace with deliveries, keeping the vacancy rate in the single digits. By one firm's calculations, the market still has 16.2 million under construction.
“So far, they are absorbing what they're building, but the question is will it hold up,” says Jean F. Russo, senior director for Cushman & Wakefield of Texas Inc. C&W's preliminary report pegs year-to-date absorption at 7.25 million sf. CB Richard Ellis, also rolling out numbers, has Q3 absorbing 4.1 million sf. C&W's under-construction count is 16.2 million sf; CBRE's 15.7 million sf. CBRE's report includes preleasing, which shows slightly more than two million sf of the rising space has been reserved.
Regardless of which firm's research team is doing the counting, the good news is the industrial market is producing healthy numbers. “We're about on par with where we were a year ago. There's no reason to believe net absorption won't continue to keep pace with deliveries,” Russo tells GlobeSt.com. “And the prediction from our camp is by the end of the year, we're going to have record construction completions.” Historically, deal momentum increases in the fourth quarter.
The Irving/Coppell submarket, which includes Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport's ground-leased northern development land, accounts for 34% of the under-construction space and 33.8% of the region's net absorption, according to Russo.
The lowest recorded vacancy in Dallas was 5.1% in 1996, when inventory was 278 million sf. C&W's latest reading has vacancy at 9.5%, dropping one percentage point in the past year, for the current inventory of 474.6 million sf. Because the firms use different analysis methods, CBRE's team puts vacancy at 8.1% in a 658.7-million-sf inventory.
Russo says the third quarter held no real surprises. “Overall, it's healthy based on the amount of leasing activity,” she explains, citing C&W's 20.5 million sf of closed deals exceeding 10,000 sf. The pipeline has at least five million sf of deals waiting to be made. “We hear about large deals in the pipeline, the news is when they make,” she stresses. The metroplex's average deal size grew 13% in the past year, factoring out to 26,408 sf in Q3.
Negotiations these days, though, are reflecting a trend shift as building owners replace offers of free rent with more costly tenant-improvement packages. “That's really smart of the landlords to do,” Russo points out, “because instead of free rent, it goes into their building and increases value in their building.” The TI package often is the dealmaker due to the attitude change. “It's had a significant impact,” she says.
Across the region, rents have ticked up slightly. C&W's researchers calculated that the average weighed quote ranges from $3.73 per sf to $8.13 per sf in the third quarter versus the $3.55 per sf to $8 per sf recorded one year ago. CBRE's Q3 analysis shows rents ranging from $4 per sf to $6.95 per sf while Q2 was $3.99 per sf to $7.01 per sf.
In a snapshot of the major submarkets, C&W's team says Fort Worth registered a negative absorption of 59,489 sf. That, Russo says, is because its micro-markets are so tight on space. Fort Worth's overall vacancy is 5.1% in a 92.8-million-sf inventory. The good news is there is 1.79 million sf under construction. “Finally, they're getting more,” she says.
The region's largest concentration of industrial space–the Great Southwest Industrial District and CentrePort Business Park–racked up 4.1 million sf of leasing activity in the quarter. Its vacancy is 10.6%, up 1.9% in the past year for the 66.2 million sf of existing space. There is 2.5 million sf under construction.C&W incorporates all of South Dallas, including the emerging 6,000-acre Dallas Logistics Hub, into its 15.9-million-sf Redbird submarket. The Q3 vacancy is 11.2% versus 12.8% in Q3 2006. The quarter's leasing activity was 1.69 million sf. And, there is 3.1 million sf under construction.
And the construction leader, Irving/Coppell's 49.2-million-sf inventory is 14.2% vacant, up 1.5% in the past year. Leasing activity was 4.78 million sf in the third quarter versus 2.97 million sf in Q3 2006. The quarterly analysis showed 2.44 million sf was absorbed this year and 522,331 sf last year. The submarket has 5.52 million sf under construction after delivering 3.47 million sf in Q3. In 2006's third quarter, there was 4.78 million sf under construction and deliveries totaled 1.84 million sf.
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