Your average economist doesn't forecast recessions -- at least publicly. Government economists like the Federal Reserve chairman would be open to severe criticism for talking the country into a downturn --creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Corporate forecasters -- especially those tied to financial institutions -- court trouble with bosses if they turn too negative and turn off clients, who might nix new deals or investments over nervousness about a downturn. Instead most economists talk in code to protect their backsides, while offering enough hints at their thinking to have it both ways. I'm no economist, but when headlines appear like "Fed Expects Slowdown to Deepen" (New York Times 11/21) and "Slower Growth Lies Ahead" (Conference Board 11/21) you know trouble lurks.
Then I get a note with on the ground intelligence from a former high-profile real estate investment management CEO who writes: "My Jaguar salesman and boat salesman buddies in Florida say we are in a recession as does my cabinetmaker in Atlanta. Check out the number of condo ad pages in NY Times Sunday mag or New York magazine. Venezuelans cannot get money out of country -- bad news for Miami. Wait till all the fraud comes out re. subprime... The sky is falling."
And a neighbor, a partner in a prominent white shoe New York law firm, mentions disappointedly that business velocity began ebbing in August. He gossiped that another neighbor whose at another big name firm wouldn't be making as much next year either. Well, neither of them are bankruptcy attorneys.
Now, Thanksgiving sales numbers send mixed signals about Christmas gift spending and pink slips may increase at Wall Street firms soon.
Well, I'm sure you have your own stories. Beyond falling housing numbers and rising oil prices, plenty of signs start blinking red.
© Miller Ryan LLC 2007
Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.
Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:
- Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
*May exclude premium content© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.
Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
