Abercorn Commons in Savannah, GA, the first LEED-certified shopping center in the United States, will be joined by other environmentally sensitive projects, reported Michael P. Kercheval, ICSC president and CEO. Sustainability will appeal to voters, as well as consumers in determining which projects will be built. The result will be greater funding availability, and greater profits, as shoppers vote with their dollars.
"Society will demand cleaner products," said. "They will shun those who don't respond, and reward those who do. We as an industry cannot afford to come up empty at this time."
Europe, particularly, has been in the vanguard of environmentally sensitive building, with conservation "an imperative for decades," Kercheval said. "There is a lot our industry can learn in this regard from Europe."
That is particularly critical as nearly every settled continent but Europe will see a massive increase in population through 2050, said Andrew Zoli, president of Brooklyn, NY-based think tank Z + Partners. This growth will be a major societal and business driver as resources are needed and population centers are redistributed.
"It took 40,000 years to get to a 1 billion population," Zoli said. "We will add 1 billion people in a decade. By mid-century, there will be 9.5 billion people on the planet."
North America's population will rise 43%, while Africa will see 120% growth. Latin America will have a 55% increase, and Asia a 46% rise, the last largely driven by a large existing base. Europe, meanwhile, will see a drop of 19%. That growth will radically remake the list of the largest urban areas in the world, which had been dominated by North America and Europe. By 2010, Lagos, Nigeria, will be the third largest city in the world.
"Studies suggest that by 2050, the largest cities will be in China," Zoli said. "And they haven't been built yet."
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