(un)Happy New Year

Despite what you’ve read here in the trends department, I’m really a pretty positive guy. For example, 15 years ago when nobody else believed it, I predicted New York and other major cities would mount a major come back.

I’m trying to find a silver lining for 2008, but I’m struggling. The housing numbers get worse, and Christmas retail was less than jolly, a particularly ominous sign since our economy is nearly 70% consumer driven. Many Americans are simply tapped out and the government sinks deeper into the red.  Fallout from the credit crisis will crunch Wall Street volumes and transaction activity in coming months. States and cities tighten their belts and prepare to cut back spending.  The nation’s unemployment rate has nowhere to go but up (and update–on 1/4 it did to 5%) . Recession here we come.