Consumers will battle a continued downturn in the housing market, a weakened employment market and high energy and food costs. In addition, inflation rates are increasing, to close to 4.3%, up from 2% early last year. "All of these pressures give consumers anxiety," she said. "We expect consumers to pull back on spending."

For the first half of the year, the NRF is predicting a 3.2% increase in retail sales, and a 3.8% for the last six months. This will be down from an annual average gain of 5% over the last 10 years.

In examining different sectors of the industry, Wells said electronics retailers will have above average sales due to product excitement and attractive pricing. Food, beverage and health-product sales will also do well, she said.