Everybody in real estate should keep an eye on the unemployment rate. The jobs picture will determine how bad the real estate markets get. If companies keep up modest hiring and avoid layoffs, real estate can skate through the rough patch, and recent economic weakness will turn out to be relatively benign. But if companies start announcing hiring freezes and layoffs pick up, watch out. That's when office markets suffer retrenchments, business travelers cut back on hotels, and consumers really shut down at the mall. Only recently have employment numbers shown signs of deteriorating.
Expect all the gloom and doom talk, including recent grudging admissions about economic distress from the Administration, to coax business managers into play-it-safe rentrenchment mode. For any remaining Pollyannas out there, Tuesday's huge rate cut certainly signals that there are problems to confront. For most companies, this is no time to launch new initiatives unless you're in businesses that take advantage of potential distress.
As we have noted before, real estate asset managers and workout artists certainly will be in more demand. And a notable survey recently completed by Bill Ferguson and FPL Advisory finds lingering optimism among real estate executives, despite some caution. The FPL report says a majority of firms plan to add staff and increase compensation in 2008 with a focus on asset and portfolio management talents.
Recommended For You
Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.
Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:
- Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
*May exclude premium content© 2025 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.
Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
