The December report from Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI in Arlington, VA came to similar conclusions, though it indicates manufacturing production fell at an annualized 1.9% rate in Q4. Moreover, it points out that when high tech is excluded, the annualized rate of decline was a full point higher at 2.9%.

"We believe that the report confirms that manufacturing is in recession," says Daniel J. Meckstroth, the organization's chief economist. "Strong growth in exports can only cushion, not prevent, the quarterly decline in manufacturing. General growth in exports and a few bright spots cannot mitigate weak consumer spending and increasingly slow and cautious business investment activity."

Bethune does think manufacturing is "struggling to keep its head above water," but he's reluctant call the industry's current state a recession. "It depends which lens you're looking through," he explains. "There are certainly some industries that are in recession, like building materials and construction machinery. But there are others that are doing quite well. Boeing, for example, has a two or three-year backlog of orders."

On the negative side, Bethune says domestic demand continues to buckle under the weight of the two-year-old housing recession and consumer moods continued to deteriorate in January, signaling very weak first quarter for consumer growth. "It's a situation where the weight of housing and building materials is starting to be enough to bring the balloon down, but at least from what we've seen so far, it's a gentle-down motion," he tells GlobeSt.com.

On the positive side, he says inventories are lean and export demand is still fairly robust, making a precipitous drop unlikely. Nonetheless, he acknowledges a more widespread manufacturing recession is possible if the current situation scenario persists. "If the Fed brings rates down, if Congress takes action, we should be OK," he says. "So let's wait to see what they do. By February we should have a better line of site."