Early Q4 Returns Show Rise in Loan Delinquency

OAKLAND, CA-The total delinquency rate for commercial mortgages nationally appears to have jumped 30 basis points in the fourth quarter to 1.7%, according to an early estimated by Foresight Analytics, a locally based firm that provides real estate market analysis and forecasting for institutions, lenders and developers. Foresight’s data is based on earnings reports from several banks; final figures for the fourth quarter 2007 are not due out until the end of February.

The jump from 1.4% follows a 30-basis-point jump in the third quarter from 1.1%. The non-accrual rate — the percentage of loans where principal and interest have gone unpaid for at least 90 days — increased to 0.9% from 0.3% in the third quarter, according to Foresight’s estimates.

Foresight principal Matthew Anderson tells GlobeSt.com that the commercial mortgage sector remains much healthier than for-sale residential, however; with the recession looming, the commercial rate probably will go at least a little higher.