What a whirlwind. So the Fed cut rates by another 50 basis points right after painful fourth quarter (barely any) growth data is announced. McCain races ahead for the Republicans and Edwards drops out of the Dems contest. Super Tuesday looms and the President and Congress struggle to enact legislation that won't inject any money into the economy until May at the earliest.
In polls voters become increasingly concerned about the economy ahead of Iraq and terrorism, but as noted before Republicans in the end will choose a tough guy candidate who will use fear tactics to get elected. With Rudy vanquished that leaves McCain, who readily admits the economy is not his strong suit. Fighting Islamofascists is and so that's why McCain leads the Republican field. Romney hangs around for now adopting all the long-in-the-tooth Reaganomics formulas (tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts) which are unsustainable particularly when the government has been spilling red ink for the past seven years and pins hopes on overleveraged consumers to keep spending. And no matter how hard Mitt tries, he can't muster the "don't-mess-with-me-I'll-blow-your-head-off" bluster that most Republicans crave. McCain may be over 70, but he'll defend the homeland better than anyone else. Go surge go.
Edwards, the anti-poverty candidate, faced a dwindling campaign war chest among other hurdles. Hillary and Obama basically have the same Robin Hood platform, which will raise taxes on the rich and both look to get out of the Iraq mess, which has cost $500 billion plus and counting. Most Americans have come to calculate that all that money would have been better spent at home. And worse yet, we all have to pay future interest on the huge war deficit.
Bush and Congress plotz around looking for short-term stimulus, while the panicky Fed dances to Wall Street's tune after assuring us until a couple of months ago that the economy was okay even though the housing market was collapsing.
In October, I was on a panel and predicted recession. Another panelist disagreed, contending that couldn't happen in an election year -- the politicians wouldn't let the economy stall out, she said. Given what's going on in Washington and the election, should anyone be surprised?
© Miller Ryan LLC 2008
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
