For the past several years, China has been the hot place to go for opportunity investors. All the major investment managers have lured institutional money into the emerging economic goliath. No doubt the arguments seem compelling for China continuing to grow into a dominant power over the next quarter century. Unprecedented development builds out and modernizes the country's cities and entirely new urban areas mushroom as rural populations move to industrial job sites. An evolving middle class moves into high rise apartments and shops in new shopping centers. Office buildings pop up to accommodate commercial expansion and more hotels are needed for all the offshore visitors -- business and tourist. Beijing gets a total facelift for the upcoming Olympics. The powers that be also fund massive infrastructure projects -- a highway network, the equivalent of the US interstate system, has been built in just the past decade; mass transit facilities, high speed rail lines, and state-of-the-art airports start operations.

But recent news out of China should make investors wonder whether the growth track won't hit some bumps. Last week's pre-New Year snow storm crippled the country. Several factory buildings crumpled under the weight of snow, raising questions about construction quality. The government grudgingly admits it might have made a mistake with Three Gorges Dam and resulting environmental damage. Air and water pollution creates dangerous health conditions in much of the country -- about 50% of the country's vast population does not have potable water. The U.S. Olympic team will ship in food for its athletes, fearing that high steroid levels in local meats could trigger doping failures. Marathoners worry about noxious Beijing air quality. Manufacturers manage to ship overseas everything from tainted tooth paste to unsafe cancer drugs. Who knows what the locals are ingesting and breathing. And more than 300 million Chinese are smokers. Oh, probably no surprise, the government runs the cigarette franchise. In short, it would be charitable to say the country seems to play fast and loose. You could wonder how transparent the growth numbers are and whether they are sustainable. I do.

Add on: Talking about trends -- Will Hillary win another primary? The Obama Mo steadily builds. She pins her hopes on "firewall" Ohio and Texas primaries in early March. But if Barack wins everything between now and then, as appears increasingly likely, Mrs. Clinton may be dead in the water. Remember just before South Carolina three weeks ago, she had a 20% lead in some national polls. Don't bet on the Dem decision going all the way to the convention.

© Miller Ryan LLC 2008

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.