Calling it a "short sharp correction," the analysts predict better price discovery among monthly and quarterly valuations and property derivatives and a more transparent securities market that was not present during the last major downturn in the early 1990s. Compared to that time, the market is more sophisticated and international, with a greater cross-section of institutional and retail investors from many countries. The report, called "Don't Panic, Mr. Mainwaring," notes that international investors will benefit from the weakening pound and that higher distribution yields will appeal particularly to large German open-ended funds.

Directed by David King, head of the UK Real Estate Team, Credit Suisse analysts have witnessed several capital raisings for "vulture" funds seeking to benefit from distressed selling from retail funds and possibly private property companies. Some cash-rich property companies, they note, also are viewing the correction as a buying opportunity. "Towards the end of 2008, we are likely to see the large Life funds, which represent a sizeable proportion of the UK real estate market, increase their allocation to real estate as they see long-term value, following nearly three years of net disinvestment," analysts explain.

Some sectors of the UK economy are expected to weather the correction more handily than others. The South-East and London will be more resilient than other markets, says Credit Suisse. The office sector is in the most solid shape, functioning at low vacancy levels.

Retail returns will be "muted," according to the report, particularly in areas where extensive supply is due to come on the market. In addition, the decrease in cheap consumer credit and competition from internet sales will adversely affect retail sales.

The industrial sector will suffer more from the removal of empty rate relief in April 2008, the report says. Demand is at the high and low ends of the market--less than 10,000 sf and higher than 100,000 sf.

In the REIT sector, Credit Suisse predicts takeover activity in 2008. "The 17 property companies that converted to REIT status are suffering from the requirement to keep 75% of their assets in rent-generating property and to distribute 90% of the profits to shareholders," the report says. The REIT market is "undoubtedly cheap," based on real estate valuations.

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