Recent headlines keep our trends barometers heading down:
"Fed lowers growth forecast": These announcements have become seemingly weekly events as Fed policymakers do the limbo -- how low can they go without saying the economy has entered a recession. Right now they don't have much room to work with -- the bar looks awfully close to the floor at their predicted 1.3% annual growth rate.
"Oil Prices Close Over $100 a Barrel": No surprise that oil prices keep edging ever higher, but the increases continue to pinch hardhit consumers, who deal with a 4.3% increase in consumer prices over the past 12 months.
"That 70's Look: Stagflation": Analysts start to worry about that CPI rise in a stagnating economy, and the need to raise interest rates to get inflation under control. While short-term the stock market lives off of rate cuts and the credit markets continue to seek relief in liquidity, the long-term impacts on economic growth and the need to increase interest rates suggest unpalatable scenarios.
"Writedowns Continue": Every day or so another bank announces a new set of writedowns. As we have noted, subprime was a convenient whipping boy and just part of a larger problem, precipitated by laissez faire lending across the capital markets spectrum. And commercial real estate still waits its turn to take some hits.
"More Housing Defaults, Prices Sink": Wasn't it about a year ago the various realtor trade organizations were confidently predicting a housing rebound by this winter? Now recoveries have been pushed out to two and three years. Gloom has enveloped hope.
"Obama Wins": But hope for change and its possibilities keep winning in the current election campaign. The national mood may be the biggest indicator out there that trend lines haven't bottomed. Change (better times) hasn't happened yet so people transfix on hope.
© Miller Ryan LLC 2008
Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.
Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:
- Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
*May exclude premium content© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.
Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
