Written by Raymond Torto, the firm's global chief economist, the report shows industrial economic rent increased 5.7% in '06 and 3.6% in '07, indicating the downward trend preceded the recent credit crisis. But despite the trend, indications are the decline will not lead to a repeat of the scenario from early in the century, when economic rents actually declined by 4.4%.
In fact, Torto advises major investors to continue investing but to do so cautiously, with appropriate analysis and assumptions undertaken beforehand. "Real estate is an investor's market, not a trader's market, and for long-term investors, opportunities will arise from others' mispricing or misfortune," he says.
The report lists several markets that demonstrate exceptional strength. Markets anticipated to show substantially higher than average economic rent increases include:
- Indianapolis 10.7%
- San Jose, CA 10.6%
- Akron, OH 9.4%
- New York City 7.9%
- Pittsburgh 7.9%
Construction also appears to be heading down, based on the most recent Architecture Billings Index from the American Institute of Architects in Washington, DC. The index, for which any score above 50 shows an increase in billings, is commonly used as a signifier of construction activity nine to 12 months down the line. Following a three-month stretch of strong increases in demand for design services, the January index dropped to 50.7, compared to 55.0 in December.
"Given the concerns about condition of the overall economy, coupled with a suffering housing market, it is not surprising to see a falloff in demand for architectural services," says AIA chief economist Kermit Baker. "This is likely to affect firms that specialize in commercial and industrial projects the most because businesses are expressing growing anxiety over a potential recession and are cutting back on plans for expansion."
For the time being, however, construction appears to be on the upswing, at least in the manufacturing sector. According to the North American Industrial Project Spending Index from Industrial Info Resources of Sugar Land, TX, industrial project spending spiked up to 31.2% growth in December 2007 after declining from 40.5% in July to 22.4% in November. The index, which takes into consideration project spending activity in 12 vertical industries, is a monthly indicator comparing the total investment value of the current year to the previous year based on actual project construction starts. The aim is to provide a measure of growth or contraction in the industrial market.
The company says the December uptick marked the end of a year of tremendous industrial construction activity in North America, which has experienced double-digit growth for the past two years. Though activity last year was measured at $217 billion, the figure is down from the proposed $314 billion in projects planned to begin construction as of last January.
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