OAKLAND, CA-The overall delinquency rate for commercial construction loans nationally jumped to 5.0% (of $628.9 billion) during the fourth quarter from 3.2% (of $616.4 billion) at the end of the third quarter and 2.4% (of $600.3 billion) at mid-year, according to Foresight Analytics, a locally based firm that provides real estate market analysis and forecasting for institutions, lenders and developers. The increase continues a trend that began in mid-2006 and has not let up. Delinquency rates for every type of construction loan — single family, apartment, condominium and non-residential commercial – have risen in each of the past six quarters, according to the report.

“It’s pretty bleak,” Foresight principal Matthew Anderson tells GlobeSt.com. “You can see why the Fed and banking regulators are … moving into relatively high alert mode. Regulators are staffing up for increased levels of workouts. The FDIC has a list of 76 problem institutions currently, and that’s always a bit of a lagging indicator, actually. If you were able to look through to underlying value of some of the mortgage portfolios out there, they wouldn’t look too good.”

The delinquency rate for non-residential commercial construction loans hit 2.2% (of $270 billion) in the fourth quarter, up from 1.7% (of $226.7 billion) in the third quarter and 1.3% (of $214.1 billion) in the second quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2006, the delinquency rate for non-residential commercial construction loans was 1.0% (of $145.0 billion). Delinquency rates have not been higher since 2002.

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