Crystal Proenza is associate editor of Real Estate Florida magazine.

HOLLYWOOD, FL-Grocery chains are resilient and can adapt to economic downturns, though their future depends on the success of overseas grocers expanding into the US market, experts told the International Council of Shopping Centers during its annual Conference on Open-Air Centers here Thursday.

Two European grocers, Germany's Aldi and British-based Tesco, are opening stores across the country in markets where traditional supermarkets have commanded strong market share for decades. However, the new competitors pose no significant threat to existing domestic grocers, according to Mary Lou Fiala, president and COO of Regency Centers Corp., who moderated a panel discussion on the future of grocery stores.

"It depends who it is," Fiala told GlobeSt.com later Thursday. For example, Aldi caters to customers seeking discount foods, while specialty grocers such as Sedano's, a South Florida grocer that targets the Hispanic market, aren't likely to be affected.

"We carry products that no other competitors carry," said Damon Del Rossi, director of real estate for Sedano's Supermarkets in Miami, during the panel discussion.Fiala, who will become ICSC chairwoman this spring, says longtime domestic grocery chains such as Kroger, Safeway and Publix can adapt to compete with large-format foreign grocers like Tesco.

The Kroger Co. has faced such challenges before, specifically the expansion of Wal-Mart into groceries, yet it responded by expanding into different shopping formats, including supercenters and high-end stores, says Terry M. Evans, VP of real estate with the Cincinnati-based chain. Now, he says, Kroger views Wal-Mart as just another grocery store, not necessarily a competitor.

Online shopping, once believed to be a threat to traditional grocers in the 1990s, has had no significant impact, say the panelists. They note that grocers have adopted their own forms of technology, including frequent-shopper programs and self-checkout cash registers, that have become highly successful.

Technology in the form of the "green" movement is also beginning to take effect in grocery and other retail categories. Regency Centers, a Jacksonville, FL-based REIT specializing in grocery-anchored shopping centers, has set a goal that one in three of its centers become LEED-certified, Fiala says.

Building formats aren't the only change anticipated. Many grocers plan to carry more environmental and health conscious products, and chains like Sedano's are looking into energy-saving options with refrigeration. The whole shopping experience is going to change, the panelists say, as the green movement is not a trend but here to stay.While panelists and others at the conference are debating whether the country is actually in a recession now, many admit there is a definite slowdown in some retail markets, especially in Florida and the Midwest.

Higher-end stores like Whole Foods and Trader Joe's will continue to see growth, though not in double digits, Fiala says. Traditional grocers typically do better during a slowdown or recession, when people more often cook their own meals rather than spend money eating out, she says.

Despite market conditions, grocers say they are proceeding with expansion plans. Sedano's will open two to three more stores annually and expand into other Latino markets in Florida such as Tampa and Orlando, according to Del Rossi. And Kroger plans to open 40 to 50 new stores per year and remain steady with its capital spending, Evans says.

Panelists predict that grocers will maintain their importance to development, especially as anchors of retail and mixed-use centers, as a major traffic generator.

Fiala believes that the challenges on the horizon for grocers, and retail in general, might be good for the industry. "When things get difficult, everyone gets wiser," she says.A crowd of 800 ICSC members and correspondents are attending the three-day conference, which concludes Friday at the Westin Diplomat beachside hotel.

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