From the opening keynote address by chairman Stan Ross of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate through the sessions on finance and development to remarks by Lifetime Achievement Award recipient John Cushman, speakers representing virtually every facet of the commercial real estate world and every property type examined the real estate landscape for signs of what lies ahead. The day's discussions, which invariably turned to the implications of the credit crunch, included debates about whether buyers and sellers are acting or failing to act out of fear or uncertainty, what the prospects are for various property types and geographic markets, and mention of the maxim that in times like these, cash is king. And one member of the economics panel said that today's conditions will produce “a Darwinian herd-thinning event” in the commercial real estate world.
Possibly one of the most succinct summations of the situation came from Cushman, who advised the audience, “Don't panic, but don't turn a blind eye to the issues that merit concern.” Like Cushman, other speakers and panelists throughout the day suggested that real estate professionals today more than ever need to maintain a realistic perspective that acknowledges the problems facing the industry but also recognizes that downturns, like bull markets, eventually end.
Ross, for example, outlined a list of worrisome factors such as declining consumer confidence and slowing job growth, but he also pointed out positive forces such as the Federal Reserve's support for low short-term interest rates and the strength of industries like healthcare and technology. He pointed out that times like these present opportunities for well-financed investors to acquire distressed loans and foreclosed properties at a discount. Ross also cited the projected US and worldwide population growth that will ultimately represent immense new opportunities.
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