IF YOU WERE LOOKING TO INVEST IN REAL ESTATE, WHAT WOULD YOU INVEST IN?

Current market conditions are clearly causing a crisis of confidence among our poll-takers. Despite the fact that the slow times can't last forever, 21% of this week's poll respondents said they wouldn't invest in real estate at all, even if they'd just won the lottery. Others were more optimistic. Nearly half (43%) said they would invest in retail and almost a quarter (21%) would choose industrial. Nobody chose office property as a wise investment, and only a handful (15%) would put their money into multifamily. Andrew Merin, vice-chairman and CUshman & Wakefield and head of the company's metro-area capital markets group, is part of that 15%. Here's what he had to say:

"We're seeing a flight to safety. If I won the lottery, I'd want a safe, good return with a good upside in today's market and maybe even something I could leverage by putting financing on it, which is a challenge in today's world.

So the product type I would drift to is multifamily. A well-located rental apartment complex over the long and short haul will be a steady earner; you'd get nice solid returns and over the long term it will increase significantly in value. So, I would buy a nice rental complex.

"If you're looking for a very high-yield return, you would buy land right now. Land has value in the commercial sense only at the peak of a cycle, and we're in the opposite direction, so it's going to be a lot of years before land has any kind of reasonable value. Then, the window opens for about 18 months, and the land has significant value. You could probably get a great buy on vacant land today and sometime five to eight years out make a huge score, but if I won the lottery that's not what I would be doing right now.

"A well-located retail center is another bond-type investment. We sold one in Hackensack last year, someone paid a 5 ¾ cap rate, and it's a nice coupon that may move up over time. It's well located and the value will always be there."

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