There's the old chestnut that I hear repeated often these days, the one about how it's times like these when you can make a lot of good investments. We should have our eyes pealed for all the bargains that will appear with falling prices. My financial advisor threw the line at me yesterday just after he showed me how much I'd lost in the past two months -- it was no small sum and I'm nearly 40% in cash. "Hey, it's a good time to invest right now, " he told me. Yeah, and about a month ago he thought it was a good time to invest in financials, and he put a chunk of my change in a financial index fund. On that score, I guess it's even a better time to invest in financials right now. And by the looks of it maybe better yet in a few weeks.

That's the problem with the old chestnut. In a sinking market trying to find bottom with the economy shot, it's a lousy time to start shopping and that's why smart investors have so much powder dry right now. They're waiting. On the risk reward side, especially after a big drop, aren't you better off getting back in a little late than getting back in too early?

The stock market had a big day yesterday, but the commercial real estate markets have yet to suffer any serious decline. It's much too early to gauge the ultimate fallout. And if you hear somebody selling you the line about it's a great time to be looking for opportunities, I'll bet you it's a broker, someone who has something to sell you, or a big investor who wants to make himself feel better.

I told my guy not to touch my cash for a while.

© Miller Ryan LLC 2008

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.