Last Wednesday evening, I was chatting with an investment banker neighbor about the financial markets travail. He wondered aloud about the future of Bear Stearns: "What's the point, what are they offering that their stronger competitors can do much better?" He said he didn't see them surviving. And he mentioned some other high profile names that he thought weren't too secure either.

In fact, by Friday Bear was on life support and only because of an unprecedented Fed move to shore up some of their bad securities, akin to hooking up a feeding tube and respirator to someone without insurance to pay at the emergency room. And in fact Bear's days are numbered with Sunday's announcement of a JP Morgan takeover. Jamie Dimon, a proven M&A surgeon, will take the parts and people that may add some value and amputate the rest.

And so what happens to that massive Bear headquarters on Madison Avenue near Grand Central? A more than nice building -- it's triple mint. It will fill back up with that great location. Maybe JPM will move into it and leave some of its nearby digs. But here we go, the looming Wall Street debacle starts to impact the stalwart Manhattan office market. The Street starts to slim down and reconfigure and that only means rising vacancy rates in America's most important office center. And how's that hedge fund guy you know doing in his $100 per square foot space?

Bear's problems and the Fed's reaction only reinforces notions of the dire state of the financial markets and in particular the companies which got caught up in transaction mania, using other people's money and lots of cheap debt. The worst thing Bernanke, Paulson and Bush can do is show any signs of panic. So they act their parts and say we'll get through it. And yes we will. But the trajectory of talk and action is noticeably less confident and more seat of the pants -- like trying to figure out what buttons to push when the plane starts to spin -- oh yeah the $600 checks are coming soon, help's on the way.

And so it goes. Wall Street will need many fewer people to do many fewer deals for a while. The days of making money out of thin air are over. Sure there will be plenty of opportunity to buy up assets that have lost a lot of value. Just look at Bear. But it translates into fewer warm seats and more empty cubicles.

© Miller Ryan LLC 2008

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.