"We have seen a pickup in the past six months relative to the slowdown," George Roddy Sr., president of Foreclosure Listing Service Inc. of Addison, TX, tells GlobeSt.com. "By the same token, there is not a huge amount of primo-type properties on the list. And, I just don't foresee anything like that in this cycle." He says the majority of foreclosure postings are multifamily properties, with retail like convenience stores running a close second. Two years ago, the monthly average was 120 postings in Collin, Dallas, Denton Rockwall and Tarrant counties.
Simply put, Roddy says job growth, occupancy rates for all product type and construction constraint have positioned the metroplex to fare better than its US peers. Despite the traumatic reports from Wall Street, Roddy says Dallas/Fort Worth's streets aren't in danger like they were in the mid- to late 1980s because, in part, lenders have done their part to keep the market in check. "For that reason and the vibrancy of our market, I do see more foreclosures [in the months ahead], but I don't think it's going to be anywhere close to what we saw in the mid-1980s," he stresses.
[IMGCAP(2)]Lance Wright, regional director for Norwalk, CT-based GE Real Estate, says lenders almost always prefer work-outs to force-outs. He says GE's list of delinquencies is practically at an all-time low despite the firestorm sweeping through the capital markets. "I would expect foreclosures to increase due to the lack of liquidity in the market, but I think it's less of a problem here than other places," he says. He acknowledged it's impossible to know how many workouts and off-market sales to pre-empt foreclosure are tied to the bear trap in today's market--high-leveraged, short-term floating-rate loans.
From Wright's perspective, the current market is an opportunity to be seized for acquisitions and loans. "There is less competition. It's a good market for me. The Southwest, in general, will be strong compared to the rest of the country. Our real estate still trades at a lower price point and we're kind of in balance on the supply and demand side," he says. "I think we're in better shape in this part of the country, but I am not saying it won't get worse."
GE, like others, has tightened lending requirements, but it's not eliminated floating-rate debt or interest-only payments. Leverages are kept to 75% to 80% whereas it had been 85% to 90% on certain spreads, Wright explains.
"Fundamentally, commercial real estate is still really solid," Wright adds. "This is a function of liquidity and credit. And, there are sophisticated borrowers with the financial wherewithal to withstand these tough times."
Roddy and Wright both cited the slowdown in commercial sales as the biggest impact to date in the region. "It doesn't mean that anything's wrong," Wright says, "but how do you make an educated guess right now. You don't. If you don't have to make a decision, don't do it."
Wright adds that properties in jeopardy are those that must be refinanced because they may not get loans in today's market. "Anyone who doesn't have to finance right now should wait because pricing is all over the place," he explains.
Roddy point out land sales have "slowed to a crawl." It could be, he adds, just a breather in the decision-making process. For all product types, rents and occupancies have continued to climb as have jobs and populations in North Texas so slowing land sales isn't an indicator that development is coming to a halt, according to Roddy. Whether it's land or buildings, he says "there has been a slowdown, but at this point I'm not that concerned about it."
"It never is as bad as some make it out to be and it's never as good as some will make it out to be," Wright concludes. "It will be painful for some. It's an overdue correction. This is an opportunity for strong performers and it helps to have equity in your pocket."
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