Is this the turn in the downcycle I've been waiting for? Well, I got a note from one of the loudest naysayers I interview every year for Emerging Trends. This gentleman has been warning me since 2004 of the imminent demise of the market -- "amateurs overpaying," "people who do not know what they are doing," "crazy flipping and too much leverage." He said he couldn't buy in the market, but was happy to sell, and he says he seized gains well above his projections even though property NOIs underperformed his proformas. So here's what Mr. Pessimism writes me today:

"All the bad news being constantly communicated (and I see you are firmly seated in the middle of that bandwagon), I finally get to feel optimistic. As you have heard from me the past several years (and I think you gently chided me for the doom and gloom outlook), the pricing levels had to drop and capital had to act more rationally, and I now see I underestimated by a lot the extent of correction that was needed. Now that the market is awake and hopefully adults are calling the shots, we should be able to invest and make a decent risk/reward return."

So should I call him Mr. Optimism? He may be a bit ahead of the curve again, considering commercial real estate hasn't taken its share of hits yet, but Mr. Pessimism's change of heart is a reminder that dawn will come... His note is like that first bird chirp you may hear in the early morning when you're having trouble falling back to sleep after a fitful sleep. You look at the clock and darn, there are several more hours to go before it's time to get up.

© Miller Ryan LLC 2008

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.