Sule Aygoren Carranza is managing editor of Real Estate Forum.

[IMGCAP(1)]ANNAPOLIS, MD-Waiting to address future housing needs of the aging population may have negative effects on the nation's economy. According to officials at the National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing and Care Industry, the national economy will face "an enormous challenge" in about two decades.

"With the significant growth in terms of the number of the elderly, with the leading edge of the baby boom generation hitting 62 this year, we felt it was critical to look at the projections for the future in terms of demand, use of long-term care and what the cost of that care will be," said Robert G. Kramer, president of NIC, during a recent conference call. "We would thereby be able to contribute to the ongoing discussion of not only how we will deliver such care in the future, but also how we will pay for it.

"Despite all the talk of the exploding numbers of older people, demographics today aren't the greatest driver of the seniors housing industry," he continued. "Rather, it's the acceptance and use of the product. The real demographic driver, as we look to that age group that is most heavily utilizing long-term care services, is the 80-plus population. For the baby boomers, that means the real challenge for us as nation is 20 to 30 years in the future. Though that may seem like a long time, in terms of policy changes to our long-term care system and how we deliver those services, and in terms of reaching some type of national consensus as to how we're going to pay for those services, in both the public and private sectors, 20 years is a very short period of time."