"People are just being more cautious," relays CB Richard Ellis broker David Fitzgerald. CBRE's Q1 data was less severe than DTZ FHO's, posting slight positive net absorption of 41,000 sf. Still, there was minus-147,000 sf of absorption in Boston's Financial District, and Fitzgerald acknowledges a chilling of demand that he backdates to the fourth quarter of 2007. Leasing is a lagging indicator, says Fitzgerald, and he maintains Boston could finally feel the impact of the national economic malaise.

After a record run-up of rents last year, recessionary drumbeats are impacting Boston in two ways, the veteran broker explains. Not only are businesses less likely to expand in a difficult climate, tenants are holding out for better terms. "There's no urgency because they know there's no one behind them."

Cushman & Wakefield has negative 19,000 sf absorption in its Boston survey of 58.8 million sf, including minus 4,200 sf in the Financial District and a dip of 99,000 sf in the Back Bay. That comes as no surprise to Rick Cleveland, director of research services at C&W, citing the same reasons as Fitzgerald, but he offers other figures bolstering a view that the slowdown is only temporary, including results showing a lack of supply. The vacancy rate for most reports show Boston in single figures, including 5.8% in the CBRE report, a 6.1% mark in the C&W survey and 8.8% for Jones Lang LaSalle. Class A space is especially tight, as evidenced by C&W's estimate of just 4.1% vacant for that block of 34.9 million sf.