Well, what do know--we have consensus. Everyone from the Fed Chairman to Reaganomics-shill Larry Kudlow seem to accept we're in a recession. Now the discussion shifts to how long and how deep. The Wall Street establishment and Republican "no new taxes" crowd look for any bright signs and suggest we'll be on the upswing by the time of the political conventions in the late summer. The stock market rally from late January depths suggests such a rebound could be coming just as the unemployment rate starts tracking up and jobs formation goes negative.

The shallow downturn cheerleaders are the same people who pooh-poohed the housing downturn a year ago and waved away signs of the downturn we're now in. Can we give them any credence now. I wouldn't.

First, the people I talk to think the mortgage mess is just the first leg down in the credit crisis which impacts all sorts of loose lending practices including on commercial real estate. "We'll start to see notable blow ups among some real estate owners in the next six months." But what many financial types conveniently miss in the wake of the Bear Stearns bailout is consumer travail has really just begun. The first hit was rising energy and gas prices. Next was lost home values. Now the jobs picture turns bleak. People are going to use their tax rebate checks to pay off debt, not to buy new cars or flat screen TVs. And in the end we all need to be saving, including the government, so the dollar doesn't go the way of Zimbabwe's dollar. But like the government too many people are up to their eyeballs in hock. Inflation is rising, wages aren't. The rest of the year doesn't look good. Shallow recession? Doesn't look like it.

© Miller Ryan LLC 2008

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.