Ever since George H.W. Bush reneged on his "read my lips" pledge, any politician has faced the kiss of death (a lost election) if suggesting even remotely that he/she might raise taxes. At last night's Democratic debate both candidates tightrope walked the issue, while John McCain has adopted the post Bush Sr. Republican battle cry of "no new taxes."
Everybody seems to forget that both Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton raised taxes during their terms leading to periods of strong economic growth and in Clinton's case even a budget surplus. And of course, McCain was an early opponent of Bush Jr's tax cuts. Now despite our multi-trillion dollar national debt, candidate McCain even suggests suspending the gas tax over the summer, while the Highway Trust Fund, which the gas tax supports, tracks toward insolvency next year.
I have news for all the candidates. U.S. taxpayers will be paying more over the next decade -- whether in the form of income taxes, sales taxes, federal taxes, local taxes, property taxes or various forms of user fees. We all want the big-ticket expenses: health care, social security, defense, police and fire protection, border security, infrastructure, and good schools. We need to pay off all the debt we've built up on the Iraq War and we aren't turning back the stimulus checks we are about to get in tax rebates. The bills eventually come due. We can't have all the things we really want out of government and not pay for them. That just doesn't work.
So get ready to pay more for your government. The next President will have no choice, but to raise taxes. Governors and mayors will need to do the same. Or would you prefer fewer garbage collections, reduced police patrols, and less of everything else you want or have come to expect?
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
