We're stuck -- $4 gas and steadily rising pump prices. So McCain and Hillary say let's lower or eliminate the modest 18 cents federal gas tax, which pays for road repairs and mass transit. That only would serve to discourage conservation behaviors and keep demand up, which ends up increasing prices anyway. But most people in this country depend on their cars to go anywhere and do anything -- work, school, shopping, recreation, kids play dates. That's how we developed our metropolitan areas over the last half century, building roads and more roads to farther flung subdivisions, separated from strip shopping centers and office parks. About 80% of us live totally car dependent lifestyles. Cheap gas and low gas taxes (one-tenth of many Euro countries) made it all possible. Now those days are over and it begins to hurt... bad.

We had ample warnings in 1974 and 1979 of oil dependency's consequences, including inflation, recession, and gas lines. But back then the U.S. still was a major oil producer and countries like India and China were not competing for fuel stocks. Although our supplies were tapping out, other countries, particularly in the Middle East had many decades worth of reserves. Back then, once Middle East tensions calmed, oil flows resumed. But today oil exploration struggles to find new reserves. Odds are gas prices continue to rise rather than track down appreciably, especially given rising world demand. And what happens if terrorists or some conflagration shuts down a major oil supplier nation? We're in trouble.

Actually, we need to raise gas taxes more to maintain our aging roads so people can get around and pay for more mass transit. And as I have noted before, more tolls and other user fees will hit drivers' wallets in the future as we cope with paying for essential and costly infrastructure improvements. Over time the economics will force changes to our lifestyles and encourage developers and planners to create communities, which reduce car dependency. It's going to be tough medicine. Car makers, meanwhile, will grudgingly accept higher fleet fuel efficiency standards and reduce car sizes. And maybe we will finally focus on alternative energy sources and technologies. We wasted 30 years, ignoring the warning signs. The idea of lowering gas taxes just perpetuates bad habits that got us into this fix and offers no remedy. Let's face the reality -- driving costs will continue to increase.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.