"It almost doesn't matter who wins the debate about whether we're in a recession or not," said Stephen Furnary, chairman and CEO of ING Clarion, in a press briefing at the company's offices here. However, he said, US commercial real estate on the whole has not yet felt the effects of the economic downturn, and any flattening of income growth so far has not been meaningful.

On the other hand, the debt crisis has made an impact on the appetite of would-be investors. Furnary noted that the Q1 volume of transactions for his company this year is one-third the normal level; ING Clarion racked up transactions totaling $5 billion per year in both 2006 and 2007. He predicted that the logjam will not break until investors believe that pricing has hit "rock bottom."

David Lynn, head of US research and strategy, noted that another logjam affecting commercial real estate—inactivity in the CMBS market—is gradually breaking and will ease up sooner than it did during the downturn of 1990. "People compare this to 1990," said Lynn. "But in 1990, capital wasn't available. Today there's a ton of capital sitting on the sidelines."

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.