However, Tampa and other Florida metropolitan areas are suffering steep job losses due to decisions at headquarters elsewhere, he says. For example, New York-based banks have stabilized staffing levels while cutting thousands of jobs from their Florida payrolls during the downturn. Florida is one of a few states suffering at least 25,000 job losses, yet at least 80% of the country is maintaining its unemployment levels, including most of the Southeast, Kelly says. "If you talk about a national recession, that's an abstraction," he says.

Even as subprime mortgages are being blamed for the current housing market mess, Kelly offers statistics showing only 30% of those loans being delinquent. Out of approximately 125 million homes nationwide, he says, 68% are owner-occupied, with a third of those paid in full, and only 7% of all outstanding home loans being classified as subprime.

Kelly, who previously spent 22 years as chief economist with Landauer Associates Inc., says he believes the national economy "hit its lull" about a year ago, and that commercial real estate will return to its classic cycle of being over or under equilibrium. He says he advises his students at NYU to always keep an open mind when examining market conditions. "Situations are not always as bad as they appear," he says. "There's no point in doing research unless you are willing to be surprised."