A leading real estate consultant who tracks appraisal trends doesn't see net operating incomes increasing enough to support existing values. This company expects cap rates to move up and values to head down give or take 15% before bottoming. That's not terrible given the significant increase in prices over the past decade. But again, for the late buyers and their lenders, it's not what they were betting on.
A pension fund advisor with ample funds to allocate says they're having trouble finding deals. Sellers are holding out for top dollar, while buyers see the writing on the wall (see above). "It's hard to get anything done. Sounds like what was happening in the housing market about 12 months ago before reality set in.
An executive from a major financial company says borrowers are getting leeway: "A lot of people owning loans don't want the assets that are underwater so we are forebearing." The absence of headlines about owner defaults speaks to how many lenders and their borrowers are working in frenzied states to stay of out of the newspapers. "I hope I can survive, " says one bleary-eyed banker.
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