GlobeSt.com: You reported just last week that the Canadian pipeline appears to have peaked. What are some of the differences in dynamics between the US and its neighbors?

Ford: First of all, at the economy level, the US has experienced softening ahead of these areas, which haven't softened to the extent that we have yet. These other areas in the Americas are all pretty heavily tied to the US economy, so what happens in America does impact Canada, the Caribbean, Mexico and Central America. There's not going to be any decoupling.

You can see from the three rather rapid interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (since December 2007) that they're acting like there's going to be a growth problem ahead. Canadian developers already have some concern because the pipeline has been in a topping-out formation rather than a growth formation for the last three quarters. They're looking at the US and saying this is what's likely to happen in Canada. Developers anticipate there's going to be problems.

One of the key pieces is American tourism into Canada, which has been declining because of the weaker US dollar and is viewed as far less of a bargain. Because of the softening in the Canadian economy, travel inside of Canada is also projected to decline and soften this year.

GlobeSt.com: You have a report coming out soon about hotel development in the Caribbean, Mexico and Central America. What will it say?

Ford: Latin American economies have been strong and haven't experienced significant softening to date. The hotel business had a very good first quarter throughout the region. Air traffic into the region is up substantially over last year. Mexico and Central America destinations represent pretty good travel bargains.

The pipeline continues to grow. With the exception of major industrialized cities in Mexico, lots of the development is beachfront throughout the Caribbean, throughout Central America and along the east and west coasts of Mexico. These are mega-resorts and mixed-use facilities, many of them with residential complexes, villas and clusters of hotels where new communities are being built. They attract world-class developers and headline-type lenders, and many of them have multiple partners in the deal. They are the types of projects that don't fit into cycles and are very long-term viewpoints and timelines attached to them, so what happens today and tomorrow is not as significant compared to what the long-term trends are.

GlobeSt.com: Where do you view the hot spots for international hotel development?

Ford: Dubai has a pretty strong head-start through this decade, with lots of properties currently opening and lots more in the pipeline and under construction. Abu Dhabi is coming out of the box and has plans that are as expansive as Dubai but are probably four or five years behind. Dubai and Saudi Arabia have seen Dubai getting a fast start and there is lots of catch-up going on.

There's a huge pipeline in China around the Beijing area, which is being powered by the Olympic Games this year, and Shanghai, which is being powered by the 2010 World's Fair. Macau is the new Las Vegas and, strangely enough, already exceeds Las Vegas in gaming revenue. Hong Kong is also very good.

Singapore historically has been the financial center of Southeast Asia, and as such has been the meetings and convention center. When they look at what Macau has done with gaming and conventions, they have decided to accelerate and move forward. Sheldon Adelson is building an enormous gaming infrastructure with three hotels in Downtown Singapore, and in an off-island situation called Sentosa there are another six world-class resorts going up.

And then there is Russia. You can't find a hotel room in Moscow!