Just back from Toronto where folks seem considerably more buoyant than on the U.S. side of the border -- "that's what avoiding 80-90% leverage can do for you," said one banking executive with whom I visited.
Meanwhile, there were no takers for the $5 blankets on my American Airlines flight.
The recent consumer numbers have been better than we have any reason to expect. The tax rebates probably have been keeping people in the stores. But what's plan B? By now most of that money has been spent and gas prices keep edging higher. A retail analyst, I spoke with last week, was almost ready to capitulate -- "maybe they never will leave the stores," she said. My response -- when all signs point to something, but it seems like its never going to happen, then you know it's just around the corner. Remember the tech wreck (those stock prices will just keep going higher) and the housing meltdown (housing values never drop)?
The big question on everyone's mind, what's going to happen with the CMBS special servicers. For years, observers wondered about how special servicers would handle a cyclical downturn with many defaults. Most loan documents call for dropping the hammer -- the dislocation between borrower and servicer and elimination of local bankers from the process, would probably mean more litigation and fewer workouts. So far, default rates seem muted as lenders and borrowers appear to be working together to avoid nasty headlines. But it's early yet. All the special servicers have a deep corps of legal teams lined up ready for action. That's what 80-90% leverage can do for you.
© 2025 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.
Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
