GAINESVILLE, FL-The University of Florida's monthly Consumer Confidence Index has fallen to the lowest point in its 25-year history, hitting 57 in June. That's even below the index of 63 posted in May, which broke the previous record of 64 from December 1991.

"These are by far the worst readings we have ever seen," says Chris McCarty, director of the Survey Research Center at the UF Bureau of Economic and Business Research. "There is no other way to interpret these numbers other than to say that Florida consumers are hurting. Based on these results, I would have to predict consumer spending in Florida to pull back dramatically in the coming months."

The news does not bode well for retailers in Florida, who have seemingly traded strong population growth in recent years for a new triple-whammy of rising unemployment, a still-declining housing market and higher prices for gas and food. Making matters worse, the index component addressing big-ticket purchases fell to 47 in June from a previous record low of 64.

John Crossman, president of Orlando-based Crossman & Co. and Southeast Alliance co-chair for the International Council of Shopping Centers, says the current retail market outlook is a matter of perspective. For example, Florida's housing market was considered overheated just two years ago, yet prices for condominium units have since been discounted by as much as 60%.

"There is bad news out there, and there is good news," Crossman tells GlobeSt.com. "It's a great time to be signing leases, and some landlords are offering extra incentives. You can get construction done faster now than you could last year. There are always two sides to the coin."

McCarty says the bleak near-term outlook for Florida consumers is based on a variety of factors, from a significant jump in May unemployment rates statewide to federal rebate checks being spent on necessities. While home prices have yet to stabilize, indications are that they are near the bottom.

"The current economic decline began with housing and in many ways it will end with housing," McCarty states in the latest index. "We expect further declines for May, June and July, with housing prices hitting their low soon thereafter."

The university has conducted its Florida Consumer Attitude Survey since 1983, with June's index based on 360 responses from random household telephone surveys. The index aims to help predict buying patterns by measuring consumers' mood toward purchasing.