"I've had discussions with other real estate people that the trend could reverse," Thornton says. "But the reality is as of today, I can't say I've heard it from a user. It does make sense to me, though. But, it would have to go up pretty high and we're just in the early stages of this."

Fuller says the chief consideration will be whether or not the savings is greater than the cost of leasing and staffing additional warehouses. He foresees national companies will rely more on railroads and outsource to third-party logistics providers as alternatives whereas a local company is more likely to lease several small locations to service daily runs for local customers.

[IMGCAP(3)]Fuller says Houston already is starting to reflect the change because it's more spread out than Dallas. "The bad news is we've got high fuel costs. The good news is we're going to change the way we do things," he says. "I don't know if it's just fuel costs, but it certainly is forcing them to look at it the higher that goes."

Pearson steadfastly believes Dallas/Fort Worth will be the chief benefactor if rising fuel prices force changes in distribution and supply chain routes. "You'll see more companies that haven't been here, come here," he says. As for companies that are in the region, he says there are a lot of three-year renewals getting done these days to buy time to see what's going to happen.

[IMGCAP(4)]Teesdale adds that the increased fuel cost could cause companies to lower their threshold for shipping by rail. Today's watermark is 480 miles from the distribution point, but he says he can see that dropping to 250 miles if fuel prices continue to skyrocket.

Teesdale says the problem has been exacerbated because fuel costs have risen so fast for so long. "If it was gradual, then it would be a different story. You just can't, all of a sudden, pass that cost onto the customer," he says.

All four professionals say the mood could change if diesel prices drop or at least hold at today's level of roughly $4.50 per gallon. "I don't know if there's a magic number because there are so many factors that go into the decision," Pearson says. "But, I think you're at a point that's causing everyone to look at it now."

Teesdale says companies, eyeing change, are faced with a two-edged sword because they're being forced to evaluate distribution and other operating costs during dire economic times. "I don't think you're going to see any decisions until people get comfortable with the economy," he says. "It doesn't make sense to change your whole distribution model if the price is going to come back down."