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Construction Loan Delinquencies Spike in Q2

OAKLAND, CA-In advance of final numbers, a preliminary national estimate by Foresight Analytics shows that growing problems in the residential sector are stifling commercial projects.

By Brian K. Miller | Updated on July 23, 2008

OAKLAND, CA-The delinquency rate on construction loans rose sharply in the second quarter, jumping to 9.0% from 7.2% in the first quarter, according to a preliminary national estimate by locally based Foresight Analytics. The non-accrual rate–construction loans for which banks have stopped accruing interest because they don’t expect the debtor to get back on track–had a similar trajectory, rising to 5.7% in Q2 from 4.3% in Q1. The 5.7% figure is nearly five times the rate from 12 months ago.

In advance of final numbers, due out in late August, Foresight Analytics uses earnings reports and call report filings from several banks to come up with its data, which has been quite accurate. Foresight partner Matthew Anderson tells GlobeSt.com that while single family and condo construction loans are the main source of the problems–delinquency rates for for-sale residential construction loans are in excess of 10% compared to the low single digits for commercial–delinquency rates on the commercial side are on the rise as well.

“While the stock market seems to think the worst is over our data shows that, as of the second quarter, things were still deteriorating on all fronts,” Anderson says. “The results are not exactly alarming, but certainly there is cause for a little concern that commercial mortgage delinquency figures are continuing to climb.”

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